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CANA would like to thank you all for a great 2016 and wishes you all the very best for the new year. Let's make 2017 fantastic! #CANA #CANAFoundation #family #newyear #team

“This is the best talk I’ve attended in over a year.”- Harrison Schramm You may know Harrison Schramm from his “5 Minute Analyst” articles and blog posts, and when he isn’t thinking of the cost of the Death Star or solving the logistics problems of Harry Potter, he also is one of CANA Advisors’ Principal Operations Research Analysts. Recently he had the opportunity to go to a FiveThirtyEight Talk on Telling Stories (at the RStudio::conf ). In his words, Harrison said, “[t]his is the best talk I’ve attended in over a year.” In a change of pace from writing a blog post or article on the talk, we asked Harrison if he would share his notes on the event, and he was kind enough to pass them along. We hope these notes spark your interest in not just the ‘how’ but the ‘why’ of statistical analysis. ****From the Event Notebook of Harrison Schramm**** Data Journalism Principles: Story leads data follows use rigorous but interminable methods: Be accurate, Be fast, and Be transparent. Useful tools for R. tidyverse is the tool of choice for data. (The tidyverse is a set of packages that work in harmony because they share common data representations and API design. https://blog.rstudio.org/2016/09/15/tidyverse-1-0-0/) In the interest of transparency, FiveThityEight has created an R package. (Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture. https://github.com/fivethirtyeight). For example, if you would like to see a breakdown of Avengers Characters by longevity and gender, you can do the following: Install.packages(“fivethirtyeight”) Library(ggplot2); library(magrittr); library(“fivethirtyeight”) avengers %>% ggplot(aes(factor(death1), years_since_joining)) + geom_violin() + facet_wrap(~gender) + xlab("Currently Living?") + ylab("Years Since Joining") + ggtitle("Avengers Characters Violin Plot - Status vs. Years") The Six Types of Data Stories Novelty Outlier Archetype Trend Debunking Forecast Novelty Data Story: Basic questions are first. New Data Story danger: Triviality Remedy: Simple Summaries Ask yourself: Is this data meaningful to others? Outlier Stories Danger: Spurious Result Tactic: Characters - talk about who the outlier is: who is it, what company is it, etc. Profile one of the characters from the outlier group, then introduce the statistics Ask yourself: Is this really so different? Archetype Stories Danger: Oversimplification Tactic: Modeling Ask Yourself: What Variables am I leaving out? Trend Trends: Terrorism overall declining in the EU, but religiously inspired attacks rising. Done using dplyr, data %>% group_by %>% summarize %>% ggplot Danger: Variance - regression to the mean Tactic: Be Conservative Ask yourself: Is this signal or noise? Fun Quote: If you can always tell a valid trend, you should be trading on wall street, not telling data stories Debunking Bechdel test: Examines how women are portrayed in movies. 1. Are there 2 or more women, 2. Do they talk to each other, 3. Do they talk to each other about something other than men? Danger: Confirmation Bias - your own belief in the debunking action. Tactic: Showcase Failures Ask Yourself: How much do I want to debunk this? Quote about p-hacking: Warning: This is evil (statistical) work. Do not go to the dark side. Do not try this at home. Note: You can read Harrison’s piece on P-hacking appearing in OR/MS Today here: https://www.informs.org/ORMS-Today/Public-Articles/June-Volume-43-Number-3/P-value-Primer-P-OR-P-values-in-operations-research-M-N-O-P-Q-R-S-T Example of p-hacking: Eating potato chips leads to higher SAT Math scores. Forecast (You work a narrow path here) Danger: Overfitting Tactic: Simulations and scenarios Ask Yourself: Am I properly conveying the uncertainty in my model? We hope these notes from Harrison Schramm on R and how to use it to tell a story with your statistical and analytical data is useful. Follow Harrison (@5MinuteAnalyst on twitter) and the rest of the CANA Advisors’ Team (@CANAADVISORS on Facebook and twitter) for more insight, blog posts and articles devolving into data, logistics and analytics in creative and helpful ways. Other interesting CANA Articles on R: Blog Article: Document Preparation... in R? http://www.canallc.com/single-post/2016/09/02/Document-Preparation-in-R Blog Article: Notes on The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom http://www.canallc.com/single-post/2016/09/16/Notes-on-The-Seven-Pillars-of-Statistical-Wisdom #stories #R #5MinuteAnalyst #FiveThirtyEight #Rmarkdown #RStudio #bigdata #datatype #datastory #CANA #tidyverse

My daughter is quite into Harry Potter. She's read all the books, has all the T-shirts, knows many of the spells by heart. I am not so much into Harry Potter; my preferred fantasy realm is the Lord of the Rings. I enjoy her enjoyment of it, however, and have been watching the movies with her when she invites me to. A few days ago, she asked me what it would be like if there were real wizards - that studied and learned the magic words and using only their wits and maybe a stick, were able to do magic and tame monsters. Without missing a beat, I replied - There really are wizards like that - they are called statisticians! She didn't *quite* believe me at first, and that's ok. I pointed out to her that in our work we: 1. Spend hours learning new 'spells', which are short and very powerful. Harry Potter and company have 'expelliarmus' as their 'go to' incantation. My current 'go-to' incantation is dplyr::group_by() 2. Use these spells to fight ever larger and more exotic 'monsters'. In Harry Potter's world, each episode brings on ever more terrifying beasts - from Basilisks to Dementors. In the practice of statistics, we use our spells to tame ever more dangerous monsters, like text, unstructured data, and 'big' data. 3. No matter how many spells they learn at Hogwarts, Harry Potter himself - and his imagination - are the key, irreplaceable elements in his magic. In the practice of Statistics, this has never been more true! Coda: The other night, I had cast one of my 'magical spells' and was waiting for the result. As my script was running, I began unconsciously repeating my own incantation: DontCrashDontCrashDontCrashDontCrash - Didn't Crash! From around the corner, I heard my daughter, without missing a beat reply "Good Job, Daddy!" :-) Original Post Published on February 5, 2017 from https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/harry-potter-fields-data-harrison-schramm-cap-pstat HARRY POTTER characters, names and related indicia are © & ™ Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. J.K. ROWLING'S WIZARDING WORLD ™ J.K. Rowling and Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. #HarryPotter #math #wizards #HarrisonSchramm #statisticians #statisitcs #data

Professional conferences are important for keeping sharp with the practice of Analytics. For many people (including myself) the highlight of the professional year is the INFORMS Business Analytics conference, held in the Spring each year. This year’s conference was held at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas. CANA Advisors has a strong presence at this meeting, with our Director, Analytics Norm Reitter President of the partner society MORS, Walt DeGrange as Chair of the SpORts Analytics Section, and Harrison Schramm as Chair of the Analytics Cluster. This short photo-blog will cover the conference from Harrison’s point of view. This year was different for me; I have attended this conference twice before, and have previously presented, as have CANA Colleagues Rob Cranston and Walt DeGrange. This year, my focus was completely on the Edelman Competition. Sharing a beer with junior analysts during the ‘career connection’ Monday afternoon. The Edelman Prize The Franz Edelman Prize is regarded as the most prestigious award given in our profession. This year, Harrison had the opportunity to serve on the committee, and had the further opportunity to be a coach for a team from BARCO based in Belgium. To qualify as a finalist, BARCO’s proposal was selected from a field of 25 entrants. The quality of their work – and financial impact – were independently verified by INFORMS. Their project was an optimization project that streamlined BARCO’s production chain from 17 individual products to 3 ‘platforms’. Kristoph, Maud, Robert and Harrison before the Edelman Competition The prize session is very rigorous, with the doors ‘locking’ at the start of the session, and time strictly controlled to 40 minutes. The presentations are professionally developed and recorded for re-broadcast. Kristoph describing the concept of platforms during the prize session I was truly energized by meeting and working with the BARCO team, and would like to congratulate the Holiday Retirements team for their win. The Edelman Gala The Edelman Gala truly is the Math Oscars. In addition to the Edelman finalists, other INFORMS prizes are awarded. We would like to congratulate our colleagues and friends in the US Air Force, who shared the INFORMS Prize for sustained excellence in Operations Research with the Walt Disney Company. It was a ‘double win’ for Air Force, as the US Air Force Academy won the George Smith Prize. MORS Fellow Dr. Jacquline Henningsen and MORS Sponsor Kevin Williams receiving the INFORMS Award at the Edelman honors reception Each of the finalists are inducted into the Edelman Academy and receive recognition in the form of an individual medal and team trophy. Harrison (Coach, left) with the BARCO team at the INFORMS Awards Gala In summary, involvement with the Edelman committee is one of the highlights of my professional life, and I am grateful for the opportunity to serve. I hope to see you at INFORMS Analytics 2018, in Baltimore! CANA’s Harrison Schramm and Norm Reitter at the FICO-sponsored VIP After-Party. #Edelman #GeorgeSmithPrize #BARCO #FranzEdelmanPrize #INFORMS #Analytics #conference #Business #CANAAdvisors #award #OperationsResearch #5MinuteAnalyst

The CANA team continued their longstanding professional involvement with the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) at the MORS Emerging Techniques Forum, 5-6 December 2017. This was a dynamic and interesting program, featuring speakers from the National Academy of Engineering, General Motors, MITRE, Mayo Clinic, and the Center for a New American Security. Topics ranged the gamut of emerging techniques and included diverse topics such as autonomous systems, Climate Change, and the whole of government approaches to conflict. CANA had a robust presence at the meeting as well, with our Director of Analytics, Norm Reitter, as Immediate Past President of the Society and moderator of the Sponsor’s Panel. Principal Analyst Walt DeGrange taught the capstone session of the Certificate Course in Military OR in conjunction with the meeting. Principal Analyst Harrison Schramm served as co-chair this year; Harrison was the inaugural chair of this meeting in 2016. Other attendees were CANA’s President, Rob Cranston, Principal Analyst Carol DeZwarte, and Senior Analyst John Moore. (L-R) Norm Reitter, Walt DeGrange, and Harrison Schramm relaxing before the ETF. This year’s meeting was slightly better attended than last year’s, and MORS has decided to transition this to a recurring, annual event. Look to the spring for an announcement for next year’s Meeting to be held in the fall of 2018! #MORS #MORSForum #emergingtechnologies #HarrisonSchramm #NormReitter #WaltDeGrange #CarolDeZwarte #RobCranston #JohnMoore #CANAAdvisors #MayoClinic #MITRE

Leadership Through Example CANA would like to highlight our very own Director of Analytics Mr. Norman Reitter for his leadership both here at CANA and his leadership as the President of MORS this past year. A bit about Norm’s Year We would like to take a minute to mark Mr. Norman Reitter for finishing up an incredible year as President of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). His term ended at noon on Thursday, 22 June. His presidency serves as a capstone to his time serving as a Director of the Society. We, his friends and colleagues on the Board, would like to highlight some of his achievements and accomplishments. This year, Norm oversaw many new initiatives for the Society. Of most immediate note, he saw the Society hold their first Symposium outside the National Capitol Region since 2012. He also oversaw successful special meetings, including April’s Educational Colloquium featuring Rear Admiral Jesse Wilson as keynote speaker, October’s Wargaming Meeting, featuring Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, and the first-of-its-kind Emerging Techniques Meeting in December. This past year also saw the first MORS Certificate Program (MCP) certificates awarded to 29 students in Wargaming. The Wargaming MCP provided training available nowhere else and filled a critical professional development need in the national security analytics workforce. Additionally, Norm’s leadership as past VP-Finance and Management, plus his time as President-Elect has seen Society return to financial stability. The Society also saw growth in the focus on the younger members in the community, and a re-invigoration in publications – both the member magazine PHANALX and the MORS Journal. Norm passing the MORS gavel to new President-Elect Joe Adams As a Past President, Norm joins a strong heritage and will be serving the National Security Analysis Community for years to come. Finally, it has been our distinct privilege to serve alongside Norm, both in our jobs and in MORS. His calm demeanor and easygoing style really champion others and brings out the best in his colleagues. Thank you, Norm! Walt DeGrange, VP-Professional Development Harrison Schramm, Advisory Director. #2017 #MORS #leadership #management #NormReitter #CANA #wargaming #Analytics #nationalsecurity #emergingtechniques

I recently read "The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom," recommended by my friend and colleague Scott Nestler. It is an interesting and well written guide to statistics. It is unique because it includes advanced mathematics like interwoven with readable text. It includes interesting stories about how statistics shaped society and Man's understanding of the world, as well as how statistics came into its own as a scientific discipline. The first chapter, Aggregation, tells the story of how statistical reasoning helped early scientists determine the ratio and shape of the Earth. One passage that struck me in particular was the discussion of Frank Weldon's experimental exploration of a question posed by Karl Pearson. I repeat it in its entirety: ...In a heroic effort to gain a better understanding of chance, Frank Weldon had thrown 12 dice at a time and for each group of 12 counted how many of the dice showed a 5 or a 6. He repeated that experiment a total of 26,306 times. The total number of single die tosses was then 315,672.... Imagine one man doing all of that by hand. In one report, Weldon did indicate that his wife had assisted him; one can still wonder about the stress on the marriage. (p. 181) Since this article is written in Markdown (see previous blog post), we can repeat that experiment right now, using our computer: tot.time = system.time({nreps = 26306 result = vector() for(i in 1:nreps){ result[i] = sum(sample(x = 1:6, size = 12, replace = TRUE)>4) }}) hist(result, main = paste("Histogram of 5s and 6s in ", nreps, " replicatons")) This procedure took 1.03 seconds on my laptop. It is astonishing - and humbling - to think of what early statisticians had to do to convince themselves that their theories were, in fact, sound. (Markdown is a simple formatting syntax for authoring HTML, PDF, and MS Word documents. For more details on using R Markdown see http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com). #aggregation #RMarkdown #Markdown #Schramm #statisticalanalysis #statistics #RStudio #ScottNestler #FrankWeldon #KarlPearson

New are the hopes and aspirations, new are the resolutions, new are the spirits and new is the year! Here’s wishing that you be embraced with a glorious one and meet all your future endeavors with victory and triumph. And if you need some help along the way CANA Advisors is here for you. From all of us here at CANA Advisors to all of you, Here is to a great 2018 and beyond! Happy New Year!!! CANA Advisors A Veteran-Owned and Woman-Owned Company. © CANA LLC 2018 #happynewyear #Analytics #logistics #technologies #CANAAdvisors #teamwork #team

CANA is proud to announce that Walt DeGrange has been elected as the Vice President for Professional Development of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). As VP for Professional Development, Walt will be responsible for the MORS continuing education program, communities of practice, annual Educational and Professional Development Colloquium, and publications- including the MOR Journal and Phalanx magazine. Walt's election to this critical MORS position is a direct reflection of the years of dedicated effort that he has provided to MORS and his commitment to continued service. CANA is pleased to support Walt in this new role as we continue to also support MORS through volunteer leadership and as a Partner. *To learn more about MORs visit their website at http://www.mors.org/ *Follow Walt on Twitter @ltwalt ‏or LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/waltdegrange/ #WaltDeGrange #MORS #professionaldevelopment #congratulations #instructor #teacher #mentor

It is our pleasure to announce the promotion of Walt DeGrange to Director of Analytics Capabilities, a new position at CANA LLC that we fondly have been referring to as the "DAC." We are excited to work with Walt in this new director-level position to help develop, implement, and improve CANA's already formidable analytics capabilities - our analytics talent (our team!), our analytics software & hardware, and our analytics best practices. This has been a careful, thorough process, and Walt has demonstrated excellent leadership and dedication to CANA's team, culture, and clients since coming aboard in August of 2014. A few examples include establishing what has become a signature part of our internal analytics growth & development - our team’s monthly "CANA Analytics Roundtable;" leading and managing one of our long-term projects in support of the USMC MARCORLOGCOM in Albany, GA; and contributing his sense of humor, Zen-like calm, and innovative ideas to our various company offsites (leading multiple key breakout groups). Walt has many years of applying Operations Research (OR), educating practitioners, and leading organizations that focus on delivering analytics. He is an outstanding fit for helping CANA continue to develop a highly effective, virtual team - the hallmark of CANA's success. Please join us in congratulating Walt on this promotion to the DAC!! #2018 #WaltDeGrange #CANA #DAC #congratulations #promotion #newposition

Professional societies are important for many reasons. They provide their members with a vehicle to learn, collaborate, and share their work with others in the same profession. How many people would want to receive life-threatening disease treatment from a doctor that is still using techniques that were state of the art in the 1990s? The same is true of analytics. Here are the top three reasons for CANA to participate in professional societies: Keeps us sharp. Knowing state of the art and new analytical solutions allows us to find the right fit for an analytical tool when addressing customer needs. Sharing our work. We love to share our analytics, get feedback, and inspire discussion. Giving back to the committee. All analytics professionals deserve encouragement and support. Connecting and continuing a long-term dialogue with analytics professionals from industry, government, and academia allows everyone to keep moving forward no matter what an individual's professional goals may be. CANA achieved all three of these goals at two events at the end of 2018. Team CANA at an event (From left to right; Norm Reitter, Carol DeZwarte, Jerom Dixon, Lucia Darrow, Walt DeGrange, and Rob Cranston) 2018 INFORMS Annual Meeting CANA was on hand for the largest INFORMS (The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences) event of the year. Over 7,000 attendees enjoyed over 70 tracks of presentations during the four-day event. There were plenty of presentations on the latest research on many topics for industries that use analytics (e.g., Healthcare, Transportation, Mining, Supply Chain) and methodologies (e.g., machine learning, simulation, optimization) to sharpen our skills. CANA’s Walt DeGrange (Director of Analytics Capabilities) also presented his sports analytics impact presentation, a three-year analytics project to determine if analytics is making an impact at the professional level in the United States. CANA also participates as leaders and members of multiple committees throughout INFORMS. CANA is by far the smallest company represented in most, if not all, the committees with much larger companies and academic institution representatives making up a majority of the committee members. This involvement in these critical committees allows CANA to influence the future of analytics and to contribute significantly to moving forward analytics in organizations - providing more direct contributions than many other analytics companies with less than 25 employees. Images from the INFORMS 2018 Annual Meeting MORS Emerging Techniques Forum The MORS (Military Operations Research Society) Emerging Techniques Forum (ETF) occurred in December and is a showcase of cutting-edge analytical methods and using these tools to answer the toughest questions in both the commercial and government space. CANA took advantage of this opportunity to showcase analysis performed by its outstanding analytical professionals. Lucia Darrow (Operations Research Analyst) presented a poster on the impact of using the INFORMS Analytics Maturity Model in determining the effects of applying advanced analytics methods to organizations. Her poster presented an analysis of data collected over the past four years including over 20 analytics capability assessments. Jerome Dixon (Senior Operations Research Analyst) presented his work on using Machine Learning (ML) to address the challenging issue of developing a Bill of Material (BOM). His research provides a unique solution to answer a business question shared in both the commercial and government arenas. Also, finally, Walt DeGrange participated as a panel member in a discussion identifying and hiring high-caliber analytical professionals. This forum allowed CANA to share with the community what sets CANA apart from other analytics providers such as our Why Statement "Create an environment that allows our team and clients more time to focus on the things that matter most[,]" and the ability to share analytical knowledge easily through monthly one-hour CANA Analytics Roundtables. CANA was by far the smallest organization represented on the panel and could provide that unique small business perspective to the audience. Images from the MORS Emerging Technologies Forum These two events highlight how CANA takes advantage of professional societies to magnify its analytics impact on the world. The objectives of learning, sharing, and giving back were all accomplished through the participation of the CANA Team at the end of 2018. Bring on 2019! To learn more about CANA or our Industry Experts go to https://www.canallc.com #CANA #community #INFORMS #MORSForum #emergingtechnologies #learning #emergingtechniques #WaltDeGrange #LuciaDarrow #JeromeDixon

CANA is dedicated to supporting our country’s veterans. In keeping with the company’s outreach and advocacy efforts, CANA recently joined a group of businesses to participate in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Hiring Our Heroes Corporate Fellowship Program (HoH CFP). The 12-week program provides transitioning service members with professional training and hands-on experience with world-class civilian organizations during the final weeks of their military service. Hosting companies receive the benefit of access to some of our nation’s best and brightest transitioning service members as well as receive a comprehensive insight into the veteran job market. From left to right; CANA CEO/CFO Liz Cranston, CANA Fellow Jason Fincher, CANA Fellow Jason Heuer, CANA COO Rob Cranston. CANA is pleased to welcome two HoH Fellows in its inaugural launch of the CANA HoH program! Jason Fincher Jason “Finch” Fincher is a transitioning Marine Corps Major with 23 years experience in logistics and analysis. He is a native of Idaho and resides with his family in Fairfax, Virginia. Jason has multiple combat deployments to Iraq, Marine Expeditionary Unit experience in the Pacific, and supported response efforts to the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. He is also the founder and president of the Association for Marine Corps Logisticians, a professional group for the Marine Corps logistics community. Jason’s recent work experience includes analysis of logistics support to Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations. While at CANA, Jason will get the opportunity to work with several ongoing projects including transportation modeling and social media marketing. “This program is a really great opportunity for veterans and the host companies. It is a rare win-win scenario. I am really looking forward to learning everything I can from the CANA team.” Jason Heuer Jason “Woogie” Heuer is a Marine Corps lieutenant colonel transitioning to the civilian workforce after 23 years of service, primarily as an UH-1Y pilot. He is a native of Indiana and resides with his family in Vienna, Virginia. Jason deployed five times to Iraq and Afghanistan in support of Operations IRAQI FREEDOM and ENDURING FREEDOM. He also served as an instructor at The Basic School in Quantico, Virginia, the commanding officer of Headquarters Squadron 39 at Marine Corps Air Station Camp Pendleton, and as an action officer at the Pentagon, supporting the Chief of Naval Operations and the Commandant of the Marine Corps in various roles. Jason’s recent work experience includes analysis on the potential next generation of aircraft carriers, including the integration of the MQ-25A into the Carrier Air Wing, and the development of the 2019 and 2020 Marine Corps Aviation Plans. During his time with CANA, Jason will have the opportunity to work on several ongoing projects, including work with CANA Drone Solutions. “I am extremely thankful for the opportunity provided by the Hiring Our Heroes Corporate Fellowship Program and CANA Advisors. Their shared commitment to supporting transitioning service members is to be applauded, and I look forward to contributing to CANA and their projects.” CANA hopes to expand on the program in the future by providing transitioning veterans insights into the virtual work environment and the power of analytics in the corporate market. HoH conducts three cohorts per year and has chapters nationwide at select installations. To learn more about the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Hiring Our Heroes Corporate Fellowship Program, please see the following link - https://www.hiringourheroes.org For any questions about CANA’s HoH Program, please contact Elizabeth Cranston at ecranston@canallc.com #CANA #HoH #HiringforHeroes #CANAFellow #internship