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The White House Proclamation on National Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day 2021 reads, in part: "…we honor the patriots who perished, commemorate the valor of all those who defended our Nation, and recommit ourselves to carrying forth the ensuing peace and reconciliation that brought a better future for our world. Today, we give thanks to the Greatest Generation, who guided our Nation through some of our darkest moments and laid the foundations of an international system that has transformed former adversaries into allies." We remain in awe of the selfless acts of fellow Americans in so many moments of history. There is a generosity of spirit and selflessness that continues unabated to this day, and it proudly honors the memory of those who sacrificed so much at Pearl Harbor. We are grateful for this opportunity to reflect. If you’d like to contact Cherish Joostberns, CANA Resource Lead, you can reach Cherish at cjoostberns@canallc.com. CANA Advisors A Veteran-Owned and Woman-Owned Company.

The fall of 2021 ushered in the return of in-person conferences and meetings. These events were the first of their kind since the spring of 2020. Even though proof of vaccination and mask-wearing was required, it was awesome to be back in person, see old friends, and meet new acquaintances. CANA took full advantage of this opportunity to attend both the INFORMS Annual Meeting and the MORS AI Workshop. INFORMS Annual Meeting I never understood how big the Operations Research community was until I attended my first INFORMS Annual Meeting in Houston, Texas, in 2017. INFORMS is the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, and its membership is 10,000 strong. INFORMS provides a network for members to share new methods and approaches, communicate best practices, and communicate and connect with peers. That 2017 meeting took place in the Houston Convention Center and thousands of people from all over the world attended. This year’s annual meeting took place at the Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, California. The in-person attendance was smaller than past annual meetings, with less than 2,000 people attending in person. However, total attendance including virtual attendance was approximately 7,000. One of the highlights of the conference was the Edelman Award competition. The participants are always of an exceptional caliber, and this year’s included Lenovo, OCP, Alibaba, JD.com, Memorial Sloan Kettering, and the UN World Food Program. Viewing the competing presentations was extremely informative. They can be seen here. A particularly notable presentation was The Uncertain Courier. This was in reference to a Georgia Tech professor’s work for GrubHub, and the efforts to build a model to address the multiple uncertainties inherent in food delivery - a very challenging logistical problem. I found the methods discussed interesting in that, one, they may be relevant to handling attrition problems in other scenarios and, two, they included the use of an AI wrapper. The presentation illustrated the trade-off value between achieving the ‘best’ solution and something that works really, really quickly. This presentation, and others, offered food for deep future thought for all the INFORMS participants. Connor McLemore MORS AI Workshop This event was the first MORS in-person event since March 2020. This workshop was a follow-on to the first MORS Artificial Intelligence (AI) Workshop held in February 2019. Originally planned for the fall of 2020, the workshop had been delayed a year due to COVID. The facility was great and allowed for plenty of space between attendees in all of the presentation rooms - although wearing a mask all day does take some getting used to. Day One included tutorials covering the entire AI history, development support, roles, methodologies, and examples. There was also a tutorial on Explainable AI (XAI) that provided an overview of past efforts, and then demonstrated current packages and techniques used in different XAI areas. The Keynote speaker was Lieutenant General Groen, Director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). He highlighted the JAIC's successes and challenges over the past few years and also pointed out current projects like AI and Data Acceleration (ADA). This project is sending data scientists and data engineers out to the Combatant Commanders (CCMD) to help them identify and begin structuring their data. This first phase of ADA is scheduled to be completed in March of 2022. With the data better structured, ADA should allow for faster development of AI tools and solutions in the following phases. A variety of other presentations reviewed everything from use cases to methods. My favorite was a series of briefs on Ethical AI. The Australian Ministry of Defence briefed their framework for Ethical AI that had been developed over the past year. There was also an interesting panel discussion with questions ranging from, “Who is responsible for AI that causes harm?”, to, “What are the legal implications of the use of lethal force in a military operation by an autonomous AI-controlled weapons system?” International presenters and participants were hosted online and made the conference hybrid with both live and online presentations and panels. Attendees represented a broad cross-section of the community and included military, academia, industry, and Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs). All in all, it was a great and informative return to more robust conference participation. Walt DeGrange Connor McLemore is one of our Principal Operations Research Analysts here at CANA. If you would like to contact Connor, you can reach him at cmclemore@canallc.com Walt DeGrange is the Director of Analytics Capabilities here at CANA. If you would like to contact Walt, you can contact him at wdegrange@canallc.com.

Native American history is a vibrant and essential part of American history. Although populations were present in North America as far back as 15,000 years, it is usually only in the context of European contact that we truly consider Native American history. Yet even within these past five centuries, there is a marked lack of recognition, understanding, and consideration of this greater story. The designation of November as Native American Indian Heritage Month, and subsequently, the day set aside as Native American Heritage Day, was – perhaps – a start, and is a valuable opportunity to appreciate the powerful substance of the Native American narrative. One of CANA’s own, Todd Allison, Principal Software Engineer, shared his thoughts this past week on his own Native American heritage and what it means for his family’s past and future generations. Todd’s story begins, more or less, with his maternal grandparents, and, specifically, his grandmother a member of the Cherokee Nation. Todd’s grandmother’s grandfather was listed on the Dawes Rolls, the federal census lists from 1898-1914, that validated tribal membership of the “Five Civilized Tribes” – Cherokee, Creek, Choctaw, Chickasaw, and Seminole. The ability to trace one’s lineage to a name on the rolls is still one of the few ways to initiate and/or verify tribal membership. You can read more about the complicated history of the “Five Civilized Tribes” and the Dawes Rolls here: archives.gov. Through that tribal membership, Todd’s grandmother was born in Vian, Oklahoma, Sequoyah County, in the Cherokee Nation, and she and his grandfather later lived for many years on the Cherokee reservation in Tahlequah, Oklahoma, the Cherokee Nation’s capital. This right was one of the few future benefits conferred by the federal tribal enrollment process. The Cherokee reservation in Oklahoma remains an important piece of a brutally difficult history. Although the reservation’s 7,000 square miles and 14 counties are sovereign to the Cherokees, its establishment in the early 1800s was primarily the result of the government’s attempt to solve its ‘Indian Problem’: that of Native Americans’ continued existence on desirable land in the eastern United States. The resulting enforced displacement of thousands of Cherokees from east of the Mississippi to Oklahoma is known, as many may know, as the Trail of Tears. Almost a third of Cherokees forced to travel to the new Indian lands, died. One of Todd’s most compelling observations was that his lineage and history rested on such a fine line between life and death. His grandparents would claim the reservation as home, but they, and future generations, would also recognize the price that was paid. Todd was fortunate to be near his maternal grandparents when they lived for some time in Pennsylvania – his grandfather’s home state - and Todd has many fond memories and mementos of the period. After his grandparents returned to Oklahoma, Todd had limited contact but shared a strong connection from family stories and correspondence. His mother kept records and documents he particularly cherishes. Todd is proud of his grandparents’ life on the reservation, not only in maintaining a physical link to other Cherokee kin and a shared bloodline but in representing the obstacles overcome to get there. One of the key takeaways from this November, a time full of reflection and appreciation, is a sense of responsibility. Todd is eager to share more of his Cherokee heritage with his sons and readily admits there is much he, himself, does not yet know. He sees it as an exciting opportunity to connect to an American past that far exceeds, and is sometimes completely absent from, American history books. Today, on Native American Heritage Day, we are particularly honored Todd Allison was willing to share his family narrative and to see, if only a glimpse, of an amazing chapter in the American Native Indian story. If you’d like to contact Cherish Joostberns, CANA Resource Lead, you can reach Cherish at cjoostberns@canallc.com.

You have probably been asked the question, “who is your superhero?”, at least once in your lifetime. Well, for a daughter of a 30 year Veteran, there is no question my dad is my superhero. Not just because he is a great dad, but because I have seen up close and personal the sacrifices he and millions of others have made for our country. I like to say Veterans are superheroes, it's a special kind of fearlessness. Today, there are 19 million living veterans in the United States, according to militaryconnection.com. Those veterans are people you interact with on a daily basis, and you might not even know it. I’d like to share with you a great list from militaryconnection.com of ways you can honor these veterans today and every day: Visit a Veterans Hospital. There are VA hospitals all over the country full of Veterans who could use some special care, appreciation, and perhaps just some simple words to cheer them up. A few hours of time and attention can really go a long way. Support Veteran-owned businesses. This is an action Americans can take every day of the year, and Veterans Day is the perfect time to go out of our way to do so. Visit the American Veteran Owned Business Association’s Business Directory for a list of Veteran owned companies by category or location. Offer Veterans Day deals. If you happen to oversee business operations, consider offering a discount to Veterans on November 11th, or any other day of the year. Here is a list of several companies’ current Veterans Day deals and offerings for inspiration. Share this or any other Veterans Day post on social media using #VeteransDay or #VeteransDay2021. Check with 65+ year old veterans to find out if they’re aware of a little known VA benefit called “Aid and Attendance.” The benefit can be used for assistance bathing, dressing, light housekeeping, transportation, and more. Learn more at veteranshomecare.com. Whether you served one year or 30 plus years, you are a superhero to someone, and I thank you for your bravery and for the sacrifices you have made for this country. To learn more about how CANA Advisors is involved with our veterans go to https://www.canaadvisors.com/ CANA Advisors A Veteran-Owned and Woman-Owned Company.

One of the analysis metrics we developed for the CANA R6 Showdown event this past April is being implemented in the esports industry across new game titles. The evaluation of an esports player’s true performance is a new focus of research due to the overwhelming amount of data available in esports, and the emphasis on player improvement. Our Impact Kills (IK) analysis metric was developed during the CANA R6 Showdown to accommodate this focus and to show the true value of a player. An obvious, but often ignored, factor that applies to any shooter game is the context in which the elimination occurred. The data behind a player elimination statistic is just as important as the elimination itself but has not been fully recognized in current game statistics and analytics. Recently, however, an analysis tool similar to ours was developed for the game Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO). An article released on September 29, 2021, detailed Bayes Esports analysis metrics for CS:GO. In the release, Bayes Esports described a similar rationale to ours regarding the reasons to evaluate a player’s performance. They discussed how the context of an elimination should be prioritized. CS:GO is similar to Rainbow Six Siege in the sense that each kill occurs in a different situation. It is also a “bomb objective” style game with weapons and gadgets. Bayes Esports classified their analysis of eliminations as round impact, and they further broke it down to round win impact and round loss impact. This is similar to our analytical focus on the impact these player eliminations have on the game rounds. The full article that breaks down the Bayes Esports analysis is available here. This is continuing validation of the CANA approach to data analytics, and more specifically, to esports. This is a unique market of unlimited - and largely untapped - potential. You can revisit our “R6 Siege Analysis: In For The Win” blog post for a full overview of the R6 Showdown, while the specifics of our Impact Kills analysis are provided below. CANA continues to contribute to the esports industry as it gains exciting momentum and an even wider scope. Our capabilities and innovations align with the top esports analytics companies that engage with professional gaming organizations. CANA Impact Kills Analysis - R6 Showdown Impact kills (IK) are exactly what they sound like: eliminations that had an impact on the round and game. Oftentimes, there are kills that have no impact on how the round plays out. In order to evaluate the significance behind each elimination, we used a variety of metrics to measure each IK. Given the vast amount of strategy and teamwork involved in Rainbow Six Siege, every elimination is unique. There could be different bomb sites, different bomb carriers, different operators, and different weapons within each round that influence the style of play.. Additionally, there are many maps played competitively in tournaments, and each team has a different strategy for each map. Along with in-game adaptation to the clock and team composition (1v2, 3v2, 4v1, etc.), there are many different contexts behind each elimination. Again, we believe the context behind the elimination is crucial to evaluating the true performance and value of a player. Our IK analysis captured that distinction on a small sample size during our Rainbow Six Siege tournament.. The metrics used to classify an elimination as an impact kill were as follows: First Kill (FK) - The first kill of the round gives an immediate man advantage. Kill Even (KEV) - A player eliminates an opponent to even the number of players on each side. This evens the playing field instead of a team being down by two players. Kill Advantage (KADV) - A player eliminates an opponent to give his/her team the man advantage in the round. Trade (TRD) - A player eliminates an opponent very shortly after that same opponent eliminates his teammate. This essentially makes the opponents kill a wash. Kill on Bomb Carrier (KBC) - A player on defense eliminates the bomb carrier. This is extremely important for the defensive team because once the bomb carrier is eliminated, the attacking team has to retrieve the bomb, but the defense knows exactly where the bomb is located. This means the defense can just continuously watch the bomb and wait for the attacker to try and pick it up. Without the bomb, the attacking team has to rely on eliminating all defensive players in order to win the round. Kill while Planting the Bomb (KPB) - A defense player eliminates the opponent in the act of planting the bomb. This is crucial because it stops the attacking team from planting the bomb, thus eliminating the defenders’ need to defuse it. Having to defuse the bomb drastically decreases the defense’s chances of winning the round, so eliminating that requirement is extremely impactful. Kill that Led to Victory (KLV) - These are kills that directly resulted in the round ending, and that team winning the round. Comeback Kills (COMEBACK) - These are kills that occured in the scenario where there is one player left facing three or more opponents, and he/she eliminates all of them and wins the round (only counted if the solo wins the round). Ownkill (OWNKILL) - A player kills their own teammate. This is impactful because it gives a major advantage to the opposing team and it did not do anything. It gives the opponent a free advantage. Double - These are not double kills, but refer to kills that met two of the above criteria at once. For example, the first kill (FK) of the round could also be on the bomb carrier (KBC). They do not count as their own impact kills, but are recorded in the final impact kills individual player breakdown. Triple - Triple kills refer to kills that met three of the above criteria at once. For example, player one eliminates player two while meeting the criteria of a KEV, TRD, and KBC. These do not count as their own impact kills, but are recorded in the final impact kills individual player breakdown. CANA R6 Showdown Champions - Psych Ward This can be analyzed much further than just the surface IK. The time and location of the IK can also be incorporated to detail the most crucial IKs in each round and game. This will not only show the players who had the most IKs, but it will show the players who had the most crucial and pivotal IKs. This can also be broken down by the IKs that players have on certain maps and bomb sites, which will contribute to the creation of team strategies. Visibility of this information will increase the understanding of each player’s value on many different levels, especially when it refers to eliminations. Until Next Time... We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg of data analytics for esports. There is a push for more in depth analysis across the entire industry. In this case, the analyses done by CANA and by Bayes Esports focused on the true value of players for the games Rainbow Six Siege and CS:GO, but there are unlimited areas and opportunities that are yet to be explored. Jack is an intern with CANA Advisors. To learn more about CANA’s internship program, please contact Ms. Cherish Joosteberns at cjoostberns@canallc.com.

During this past summer, the CANA Foundation, the “give back” arm of CANA Advisors, helped support a live, interactive panel at the 89th Virtual Military Operational Research Society (MORS) Conference. The event, a Women in MORS Special Session on Effective Networking Strategies, was an informative and entertaining success with almost 50 attendees, bringing together a diverse group of women and men leaders and thinkers to share their successes, and even sometimes, failures. The highlights are worth revisiting as we approach the 22nd of September, American Business Women’s Day; a National Day of Recognition that likely falls below the radar on a far too frequent basis. This year, we share the insights and tools used by professionals to interact in meaningful and productive ways in their respective fields. Due to the non-attributional nature of the panel, specific names and positions cannot be provided, but the group was wide-ranging and accomplished, from senior military members and government policy leaders to top technical experts. Their comments have been condensed and organized for clarity. The panel was first asked to detail an interesting or influential professional experience or notable observation. Three maxims were particularly resonant and widely applicable. It’s not who you know, but who knows you. You have to create true, foundational relationships in order for your networks to work. You need a wingman that you can reach out for support. Be conscious of who you network with – think about looking up and out. You will have to network with those outside of your comfort zone. Second, the question was raised: What is the most valuable piece of professional advice you received and who gave it to you? Action, accountability, and balance were common threads woven through the panel’s answers, but each panelist shared a slightly different take. “You can have it all, but you can’t have it all at the same time,” as credited to a well-known female government policy advisor. Work hard and own it! You can do and be anything; don’t let anyone else define who you are. Attitude can be contagious. Keep a positive, optimistic outlook. This will help you and your team accomplish goals. You rarely accomplish anything when you’re trying to accomplish everything. It is important to maintain balance: put things in priority and drop those of low priority. Do what you say: actions follow words. It’s okay to fail. Learn from it and grow. The panel’s spontaneous and personal answers are supported by recent research. An exceptionally long and detailed study of networking among men and women was cited by the Harvard Business Review in 2019 with similar findings. The study - over 15,000 participants over 15 years - also found that successful women prioritize their efforts; they maneuver adeptly in and out of networks; they create balance, and they create a wide-spanning network(2). While all of this is illuminating, there remains the practical question of how do we do these things? Building, maintaining, and using networks is not easy, nor are there obvious instructions. Answering this question in the context of women in business adds another layer of complexity. Fortunately, the panel had answers. Look for people that are sincere and open-minded. Career paths may separate, but those types of people will give you their time and honest feedback. You have to involve yourself in activities and opportunities to build your network – through your organization, and through professional societies. A lot of people network when they need something, but it’s a continual process – you need to build your network so that it exists when you need it, and it has to be genuine. You need to find what is comfortable for your personality. Be okay with who you are. If you excel in a tough job, you’ll build your network based on how you interacted with people. Again, study results bore this out. Successful networkers were found to have confidently looked outside their familiar zones to seek new connections. There is no expectation that it is comfortable, per se, but reaching out is, “...critical to accessing new information, leading innovation, and pursuing advancement, for both women and men.”(2) Building connections requires work, as one panelist noted, ‘there’s no such thing as luck – do what you can to be there in the room. Be prepared, be present.’ A large component of the panel was a discussion of the differences, if they exist, between male and female networks, and the intersections thereof. Given the panel’s traditionally male-centric and/or male-dominated career representation - military, technology, IT, and government - it was little surprise most participants recognized a male/female distinction. But is there a line in the sand, or have the two sides become mixed? The answer is a little of both. The general consensus was that separate male and female networks do exist, but the smart professional tries to adeptly navigate and build connections in both. Ideally, these networks will eventually share members and benefits. There was a recognition among the panel that while things are changing, and ‘it is better than it was,’ women still have ‘…to be well prepared and hold their own.’ One panelist observed a female-centric network can be a powerful tool, referencing another study that validated this conclusion. According to the evidence, “...77 percent of the highest-achieving women had strong ties with an inner circle of two to three other women with whom they communicated frequently.”(1) It is affirming that size and composition are not the sole characteristics of a network that works. Although this may not seem particularly progressive, it is an improvement from connections and affiliations rooted solely in outdated notions of looks, compliance, or stenographer pool aptitude. That being said, there is still a dichotomy in perceptions of what qualities promote success. The networks study touched on this, perhaps in an unintentionally ironic way, in revealing the female networking secret of being “energy-balanced.” The successful women, “...demonstrate[d] both competence and warmth, both intelligence and emotional intelligence, as studies—the researchers’ and others—suggest they must [do] to build trust.” Rob Cross, one of the study’s authors, observed, “[t]he most successful women don’t downplay their knowledge, skills and accomplishments; they show evidence that they can do things…But they also use humor, presence, and small gestures to signal caring and positivity….”(2) Competence and intelligence for all? Yes. But, warmth and small gestures? Yes, if the measures were assessed equally in both men and women. More than likely, this will remain a challenging path to navigate. Recognizing the challenges, the panelists noted collaborative and collegial professional environments must be nurtured. There is responsibility not only to support, and be supported by, one’s networks, but also to participate authentically in the day-to-day. Opportunity lies in the mundane to shape relationships and to take and receive advice. Being prompt, specific, and reciprocal were omnipresent themes of the panelists’ comments. Give specific, targeted comments, and be open to receive feedback. Feedback needs to be timely. Give kudos right after a subordinate gives a great brief, and prompt feedback after a misstep— feedback is best when it is fresh. You need to be approachable so that your people can talk to you. Ask targeted questions. How am I doing? is too broad to get a good response, instead use something like, What did you think about what I said at the offsite? You need to be firm, fair, and friendly, and develop relationships with subordinates who feel comfortable giving you honest feedback. There is a limit to the number of people one person can effectively manage. Knowing that is the best way to maintain sincerity and tailor feedback to specific personalities. Subordinates, superiors, and peers must be able to communicate effectively with one another: to learn, to teach, to exchange information, and to relay both good news and bad. One of the key benefits of this communication chain is to promote one’s own professional competence. During the question-and-answer period, the audience asked the panelists how to become a “go to” person. The answer was simple: tell people! People inside and outside the team or organization need to know you are interested in more - more responsibility, more challenge, and potentially, more advancement. Ask to go along to a briefing, communicate the desire for opportunities, speak up. Professional networks provide more opportunities to act. Your network is not a safety net to protect you from falling – those connections are your guidelines to help you make it to the top. Use it! If you’d like to contact Cherish Joostberns, CANA Resource Lead, you can reach Cherish at cjoostberns@canallc.com. If you’d like to contact Renee Carlucci, Principal Operations Research Analyst, you can reach Renee at rcarlucci@canallc.com. 1. Hallgren-Rezac, G., Thomson J., and Rezac, D. (2019, March 6). Opinion: Women’s networks are key to leadership success. BCBusiness. https://www.bcbusiness.ca/Opinion-Womens-networks-are-key-to-leadership-success 2. Harvard Business Review. (2019, November-December). The Secrets of Successful Female Networkers. Harvard Business Review. Harvard https://hbr.org/2019/11/the-secrets-of-successful-female-networkers

As we think about the typical work week, we tend to imagine the same 8 am - 5 pm that our parents, grandparents, and those before them pursued. That consisted of getting ready in the morning, eating a quick breakfast as we run out the door, fighting traffic on the way to the office, hopefully grabbing a quick bite for lunch (often at our desk), before rushing into the afternoon sprint, and then fighting the same traffic to get home. Rinse and repeat until Friday. And frankly, after rushing around for 10+ hours, we rarely have the energy to embark on new journeys, let alone leave the house unless it’s absolutely necessary. But what if you woke up to this on Monday instead? And Tuesday, and Wednesday… What if you woke up at your destination and just had to step outside at the end of the day to enjoy new journeys? With the evolution of modern technology, our world is quickly changing and the possibilities are endless. We are a married couple, with two boys and a dog, who are fortunate to both work remotely for CANA Advisors, and we have been able to do just that this past summer. Working remotely has afforded us the opportunity to work from the road and pursue endless experiences. This has opened doors, allowing us to more efficiently manage our time while enjoying a variety of places and adventures with our children and our families. In 2021, we spent 10 days camping to volunteer as leaders with the Boy Scouts of America, 28 days traveling in our RV, and 33 days at a North Carolina beach. It’s important to understand that we weren’t on vacation or paid time off for that entire time. We’ve merely worked from different locations so that, at the end of the day, we were already at our destination and prepared to enjoy time with our family. Our office may look a little different from the traditional office, but the end goals of dedication, teamwork, motivation, and success are the same. This flexibility facilitates a work-life balance unmatched by a conventional work environment. This has enabled us not only to successfully deliver on contract deliverables, but also to take our family hiking, swimming, boating, jet skiing, water skiing, tubing, kayaking, fishing, boogie boarding, crabbing, tenting, biking, and volunteering with the youth in our community. We’ve been able to feel, see, touch, and enjoy experiences more frequently than when we worked in a traditional working environment. CANA Advisors is a 100% virtual company. This is not to be confused with “working virtually,” which typically refers to working from home a few days a week and working in the office a few days a week, where the company has a physical facility. Working for a virtual company means that your current location at any moment is your office, regardless of your current zip code. Our team members at CANA Advisors do not have assigned physical office space. Our teams are scattered across the United States, allowing us to hire the best employees, skill sets, and team members in the country, not just the best in our city. We leverage video teleconferencing and cloud-based services to interact and share on a daily basis. This provides the opportunity to work anytime and anywhere. This isn’t always sunshine and rainbows. It takes dedication and perseverance to ensure that we communicate well with our team members and carry our own weight. Sometimes it means that we stay up until the early morning, while the family sleeps, in order to help the team meet deliverables. It means that we’re back in the RV attending meetings and addressing client requests while the family is sitting at the pool. But it also means that we can soak up the sun by the ocean and catch up on work under the moon, and we wouldn’t trade it because otherwise many of these experiences would not have been possible. Someone once said that we get 18 summers with our kids, so don’t waste any of them. We plan to make the most of every summer we get! 2021 isn’t over yet! We’re excited to see what new adventures await for our family in the future & thankful that we work for a company that enables us to Work To LIVE! Written by Todd and Stephanie Allison. Stephanie is a Senior Project Manager here at CANA and Todd is a Principal Software Engineer at CANA as well. You can contact Stephanie at sallison@canallc.com and Todd at tallison@canallc.com.

The legendary advance of the 20th Maine Regiment[i] "Do It - That's how" – Colonel (later Major General) Joshua Chamberlain Colonel Joshua Chamberlain is best known for the bayonet charge during the Civil War battle of Little Roundtop. Chamberlain ordered this maneuver after several calls for reinforcements and more ammunition. The Confederates were preparing to make a charge up Little Roundtop, and Chamberlain ordered his men to charge first with bayonets since they had no more ammunition. The timing and intensity of the charge rattled the Confederates - they ran and retreated. Many say this was the principle decisive action that led to Union victory at Gettysburg, and eventually the end of the Civil War. Colonel Joshua Chamberlain and the 20th Maine are the embodiment of navigating through the chaos and what ‘sense and respond’ looks like in a military environment. There are many heroes in this story and many lessons in leadership and the time-critical performance of duties. I will leave it up to the reader to further study Colonel Joshua Chamberlain and the 20th Maine. This blog post is a nice start (https://thepurcellchronicles.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-legendary-advance-of-20th-maine.html). We are going to explore what “Sense and Respond” looks like in a business context. How does ‘Sense and Respond’ translate to a business environment? From a recent McKinsey and Company survey, COVID-19 and supply chain disruptions were the top issues on senior executives’ minds[i]. From the Delta variant to events in Afghanistan, uncertainty and the second and third-order effects from these recent events is hard to decipher. Figure 1: The COVID-19 effect on economic conditions | McKinsey. Retrieved August 16, 2021, from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment Forecasting is predicting future events based on past historical events. Usually, we have an ‘event’ that has multiple occurrences over time. An event can be a supply transaction or a medical ICD code. Time series analysis is a common technique for analyzing events and producing a forecast. ‘Sense and Respond’ can be considered a slight paradigm shift or a higher level of analytical maturity than your traditional forecast. We can use various frameworks to explain this – Boyd’s OODA loop[ii], Carnegie Mellon's CMMI maturity model[iii], and causality - Judea Pearl's “The Book of Why.”[iv] For ‘Sense and Respond’ we aren’t blindly chasing the most recent event but rather applying a hybrid statistical-mental model to the most relevant information we have and acting upon that in both a tactical and strategic manner. We make the best decision (act) based on model features and what we know (context). This is a very process-centric approach that requires extensive domain knowledge with continuous feedback for quick, decisive actions. In the ideal organization and environment, we want to do both – forecast as an input into our ‘Sense and Respond’ architecture. We want to be able to predict what will happen at the present moment. However, this is not always the case with military operations, supply chains, or pandemics. Walmart and Amazon are both good examples of an organization that has been able to both forecast and ‘Sense and Respond.’ They’ve been able to accomplish this by developing their own customized enterprise information systems that allow them to reduce information delay and shape the environment that both consumers and producers interact in. A great case study for what happens when companies can’t make the transition from indecision or ‘Wait and See’ to ‘Sense and Respond’ is Lora Cecere’s 2016 Caterpillar Case Study[v]. Below figure from her 2016 LinkedIn post: Figure 2. The Time It Took Fortune 500 Companies to Sense the Market Downturn and Make Changes in the Recession of 2007-2009[vi] For global or more niche supply chains, any disruption in manufacturing has second and third-order effects on quality forecasting. In the case of COVID-19 forecasting models, disparate data, nonstandard practices, and shifting and/or vastly different environments were the enemy to a quality forecast. If we can’t get a quality forecast, we need to shift resources and our strategy to ‘Sense and Respond.’ To make this shift in strategy, we need the collection and fusion of information based on known models of what ‘event’ is happening. We also need scenario planning for what can or might happen next. If this sounds familiar to Boyd’s OODA loop – well…it is. Figure 3. Boyd’s OODA Loop[vii] For supply chains, the pandemic has already forced this shift, but challenges are and will still occur. Again, the Delta variant and recent events in Afghanistan will likely impact some supply chains[viii].[ix] However, mature supply chains have the IT infrastructure in place to ‘Sense and Respond.’ The challenges for mature supply chains are: Identifying the potential scenarios (i.e., Figure 1 COVID19 vs GDP scenarios), and Knowing the trigger points or key indicators for which scenario you will be or currently operating in. For other industries – the data collection methods and IT architectures may not already be in place. The US healthcare system quickly comes to mind; however, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Google, and Apple are making big investments and advances in this space. Technology, Process, and People - You can’t just “Do It - That’s How” without these In conclusion, to use another military strategist, the Chinese General Sun Tzu, leaders must ‘Shape the Battlefield.’ Leaders must envision worse-case scenarios and then develop plans, processes, and courses of action to push these scenarios to their advantage and strategic goals. To effectively do this they must further invest in technologies and IT architectures that allow them to know when a certain scenario is coming to fruition. Today’s environment and a deluge of information also means advanced analytics and machine learning to identify what information is actionable and what information is just noise. They must also effectively train and develop processes for when a given scenario does in fact come to fruition. Processes can include Scenario Planning to Value Stream Mapping depending on the domain. United States Navy aviation and the United States Navy nuclear program are great examples of high-reliability organizations (HROs) that do this today.[x] Lastly, and most importantly, they need the right mix of people that can make, and are empowered to make, the time-critical decisions necessary to ensure success. Little Roundtop was not just Colonel Joshua Chamberlain. As you dig into the battle, several names come up that if they didn’t succeed in their role or make the correct decision – the battle would have been lost. Decision-makers need ‘Sense and Respond’ IT architectures that include analytics capabilities, streamlined, value-centric processes, and highly trained, passionate personnel. Given these tools – they can just “Do It” as Colonel Joshua Chamberlain prescribes. Jerome is a Senior Operations Research Analyst here at CANA. You can contact Jerome at jdixon@canallc.com. (i) Downtowner. (2017, May 24). The Purcell Chronicles: Chamberlain’s 20th Maine Saves the Union at Little Round Top. The Purcell Chronicles. https://thepurcellchronicles.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-legendary-advance-of-20th-maine.html (ii) The COVID-19 effect on economic conditions | McKinsey. (n.d.). Retrieved August 16, 2021, from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment (iii) Grant, Tim, and Bas Kooter. 2005. “Comparing OODA and Other Models as Operational View C2Architecture,” June 13, 2005. (iv) White, Sarah K. 2021. “What Is CMMI? A Model for Optimizing Development Processes.” CIO. June 1, 2021. https://www.cio.com/article/2437864/process-improvement-capability-maturity-model-integration-cmmi-definition-and-solutions.html. (v) “The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect: Pearl, Judea, Mackenzie, Dana: 9780465097609: Amazon.Com: Books.” n.d. Accessed August 12, 2021. https://www.amazon.com/Book-Why-Science-Cause-Effect/dp/046509760X. (vi) Caterpillar’s CEO Doug Oberhelman made a big bet and lost. Here’s what he can teach us. | LinkedIn. (n.d.). Retrieved August 13, 2021, from https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/doug-oberhelman-learns-lesson-lora-cecere/ (vii) Cerere, L. (2016, October 17). (1) Caterpillar’s CEO Doug Oberhelman made a big bet and lost. Here’s what he can teach us. | LinkedIn. (viii) Grant, Tim, and Bas Kooter. 2005. “Comparing OODA and Other Models as Operational View C2Architecture,” June 13, 2005. (ix) As US exits Afghanistan, China eyes $1 trillion in minerals. (2021, August 24). Retrieved August 31, 2021, from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/24/as-us-exits-afghanistan-china-eyes-1-trillion-in-minerals (x) Network, marinemonks N. (2021, August 16). How Afghanistan’s Taliban Takeover Will Affect The Shipping Industry—Marinemonks. Retrieved August 31, 2021, from https://marinemonks.com/how-afghanistans-taliban-takeover-will-affect-the-shipping-industry/ (xi) What high-reliability organizations get right | McKinsey. (2019 May 7). Retrieved September 1, 2021, from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/what-high-reliability-organizations-get-right

We all know how to find a job; we look, we learn, we apply. But even if and when successful, how do we find a career? Most Americans define a large part of their personal identities on the work they do and their particular capacity to do it well. Not only are we each American, but we are each laborer: plumbers, nurses, lawyers, programmers, athletes, cleaners, managers, and more. Some of us may stay in one field, and others move as interests and opportunities change, but we all take pride in our ability to contribute to the well-being of ourselves, our families, and our country. Over 70% of each year is usually spent on “work”; whether we seek a specific career, or it finds us, it is meaningful. We wanted to observe this Labor Day weekend with a CANA career story. Kurt Eades is one of our Senior Logistics Analysts with a diverse background and has, to paraphrase Liam Neeson, a “special set of skills.” Kurt is a part of many, many of our CANA projects and brings something exceptional to the table every day. He, and all the hard-working members of our team, are why we know Labor Day is something special. Kurt Eades enlisted in the Marine Corps in the early 1980s, specializing in motor transport vehicle maintenance and repair. After several years, he transitioned to explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) where he spent, in varying capacities, the majority of his long military career. Kurt’s primary responsibility was the response, identification, stabilization, and disposal of any variety of munitions: ammunition, bombs, chemical, biological, and nuclear threats. This was a job, we CANAers agree, that operates on a very thin margin of error! It was during this chapter of his career that Kurt completed some of his most satisfying and challenging missions. He participated in numerous ordnance clearing missions in the highly rural, mountain and jungle regions of Southeast Asia, including Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. With an expert’s knowledge in Weapons of Mass Destruction, Kurt also supported numerous training opportunities with a wide variety of government agencies and supervised response forces on a worldwide scale. After military retirement, Kurt took several years to explore slightly less “stimulating” work but eventually transitioned his talents to contract work in support of NATO. He served in a variety of capacities, stretching his knowledge and expertise, and over several years, became immersed in the Quality Control field. Kurt specifically worked in Fuels, overseeing Fuel Inspection programs and contracts throughout Afghanistan. It was during this period that Kurt crossed professional paths again with an old Marine friend, and CANA Chief Analytics Officer, Norm Reitter. It would prove serendipitous. In 2015, Kurt was still working in Kabul when the opportunity to work with CANA Advisors dropped into his lap. He accepted a position as a Logistics Analyst to support efforts on a Marine Corps business capability project and to also become CANA’s own Quality Control Manager. Highlights from his first few years included a deep dive into the company’s IT management and security, and participation in critical commercial and federal projects. One of these, CANA Drone Solutions, saw Kurt studying to become a drone pilot, to include drone operation, utilizing and testing drone mapping applications, and supporting videography. There is little doubt that Kurt’s dynamic background also made him an ideal choice for managing CANA’s functional security needs. Kurt adeptly took on primary responsibility for CANA cyber security, IT management, and accepted a role as Assistant Facilities Security Officer. In today’s environment, it is certain that security training, protection, and oversight are absolutely critical for brick-and-mortar and virtual businesses. Enhanced by his EOD experience and quality control expertise, Kurt’s keen awareness of the potential and realized threats has enabled CANA to continuously meet the needs of its diverse clientele. In 2020, the pandemic hit full force. CANA had an advantage in managing the huge changes as it was already virtual, but it was a fast and furious year of new cyber security classes, assessments, and threats. Kurt ensured CANA’s operational security during this trying time while remaining an active member of ongoing project teams. He and CANA have kept pace with the ever-changing environment, and 2021 is proving no different. Photo Credit: Michael “Fuzzy” Mauldin <<<< Famous Guy It is certain 2022 and the years following will continue to be years of great achievement for Kurt Eades and the rest of Team CANA. Kurt is the first to say it takes a team of true professionals for an organization to run smoothly, and we couldn’t agree more. But, we recognize the singular worth of a career spent in facing diverse, challenging assignments and the personal value in doing something you love. We hope CANA helps to provide that. We are so appreciative of what our team members bring to the table each and every day, and we know that sentiment will be shared on this upcoming Labor Day holiday. Have a wonderful Labor Day Weekend!

Here’s a quick tip I found – use a persistent spot windows server instance on AWS with OneDrive. This sped up my development time and workflow considerably! If you are new to AWS I recommend this Medium blog post by Tim Fogarty for a start. Getting started with AWS. https://medium.com/tfogo/getting-started-with-aws-d7c51133fc92. Here is the base architecture we will be installing our applications from: The key things we need for this configuration and setup are: 1. Persistent Spot EC2 Instance (to reduce costs) 2. AMI type: Windows_Server-2019-English-Full-Base-2021.06.09 3. Static Elastic IP: https://aws.amazon.com/premiumsupport/knowledge-center/ec2-associate-static-public-ip/ 4. Security Group: Open ports 22 and 3389 5. Remote Desktop Connection: https://docs.aws.amazon.com/AWSEC2/latest/WindowsGuide/connecting_to_windows_instance.html Once connected to your instance, you can now install and configure your applications: OneDrive, PowerBI Desktop, R/RStudio, Node, and PowerShell (for custom R visuals) After installation, I saved my remote desktop connection file (.rdp) to OneDrive so I could access this instance on any device I was working on. In the comments section - Please let me know how this works for you or any other tips you found to reduce your development time. Jerome is a Senior Operations Research Analyst here at CANA. You can contact Jerome at jdixon@canallc.com.

As a Principal Operations Research Analyst with CANA Advisors, I am always excited at the opportunities to participate in professional organizations. One such professional organization is the Military Operations Research Society (MORS), which hosts an annual symposium. This year’s symposium like last year’s was virtual, and just like last year’s, it was robust and engaging notwithstanding its remote execution. I was very pleased to provide two presentations at this year’s 89th MORS Symposium. The first was a summary of the non-profit work on military readiness I continue to do with www.probabilitymanagement.org. Since last year’s symposium, we’ve had our work published in the MOR Journal, a peer-reviewed journal of high academic quality, which describes a more technical continuation of the policy-focused work that won me and my PHALANX Magazine article co-authors—Dr. Sam Savage and Shaun Doheney—last year’s MORS Walker Award. We presented on the recommendations our response article published by the Center for International Maritime Security to an article in War on the Rocks by General Charles Brown, the Chief of Staff of the Air Force, and General David Berger, the Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, calling for a better analytical framework for the joint force to better assess balancing operational costs of existing forces with investment costs to modernize and replace those forces. Additionally, I presented the status of CANA’s work on the Distribution Network Model (DNM), which is designed to determine the most responsive and lowest cost afloat and ashore tailoring a plan for inventory and transportation enablers and inform investment decisions to allow selection of the most effective affordable platforms to support Marine Corps future operating concepts. The model will allow the Marine Corps to explore new logistics operating concepts to include supplying many mobile austere bases distributed over thousands of miles. I was pleased to be joined by Mr. Ric Story, HQMC, LPO-2, who gave his organization’s perspective on the value of DNM. I always look forward to and enjoy the sharing of knowledge that takes place at the MORS Symposium, and I look forward to attending next year's 90th MORS Symposium! To learn more about the Military Operations Research Society, check out this link - https://www.mors.org/ Connor McLemore is one of our Principal Operations Research Analysts here at CANA. If you would like to contact Connor, you can reach him at cmclemore@canallc.com

Team CANA would like to welcome Tamara Harvey, Data Science Fellow, and Dallas Bowers, esports Intern! Tamara Harvey “My mission in life is not merely to survive, but to thrive; and to do so with some passion, some compassion, some humor, and some style.”- Maya Angelou Tamara comes to CANA with a unique background that includes three years of teaching experience in various settings such as Texas and China. During that period, Tamara gained unique perspectives and honed her analytics skills. In particular, she focused on creating visualizations given tracked data. Tamara learned she truly enjoyed the aspect of tracking and creating data and wanted to further explore that in her studies and career. This, partnered with her undergraduate experience with a vast variety of different data programs, and her ‘green thumb’ abilities in mathematical and statistical problem solving, have enabled Tamara to pursue her educational and professional goals. Tamara is currently nearing completion of her Masters of Science in Applied Mathematics, with a certification in Data Science, at California University of Pennsylvania. She will participate in the CANA Futures Program throughout the summer. Welcome, Tamara! You can contact Tamara at tharvey@canallc.com. Dallas Blowers The Journey of 1,000 miles begins with the first step - Lao Tzu Dallas has two years of experience in data analytics for nonprofits. He has served as a consultant for organizations looking to maximize the impact of their surveys and focus groups. Dallas is currently a Masters student in Applied Statistics at Michigan Technological University and is a graduate of Clarkson University where he received his Bachelor of Science in Social Sciences. While at CANA, Dallas will be learning more about the CANA culture and practicing professional analytics utilizing R and Python. He will be working with the esports team to explore existing and new opportunities for esports data management. We’re glad you’re here, Dallas! You can contact Dallas at blowers@canallc.com. If you’d like to learn more about the CANA Futures Program, please reach out to Cherish Joostberns, CANA Resource Lead, at cjoostberns@canallc.com.